Trusting judgements : how to get the best out of experts / Mark A. Burgman.
Publication details: Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2016Description: ix, 203 pagesISBN:- 9781107531024 (pb)
- 658.46 Q6
Item type | Current library | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | Item holds |
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Books | Mahatma Gandhi University Library General Stacks | 658.46 Q6 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 57281 |
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658.45 Q11 Strategic communication in business and the professions/ | 658.45 Q4 Business and professional communication: | 658.45 Q41 Six key communication skills for records and information managers/ | 658.46 Q6 Trusting judgements : | 658.47 Q4 A practical introduction to security and risk management / | 658.472 072 Q1 Information security evaluation | 658.478 Q7 Big data management/ |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Machine generated contents note: Preface; Acknowledgements; 1. What's wrong with consulting experts?; 2. Kinds of uncertainty; 3. What leads experts astray?; 4. Dealing with individual experts; 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited; 6. Tips to get the best out of experts; Appendix. Sources; References; Index.
"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made"--
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